Two cents about Afghanistan

 Violence, terror, bomb blasts, insurgency. If someone wants to define Afghanistan, these might be the best words to describe it. And not just talking about the 21st century, but even in the past Afghan region has been marred by brutal force and guerrilla warfare. On 15th August 2021, the Taliban completed its take-over of Afghanistan as President Ghani fled to the UAE. Although the Taliban have won Afghanistan militarily, how will they handle it politically and administratively? This remains an important question and will define their success as in the past, numerous groups had occupied Afghanistan but then failed to administer it.

First and foremost problem the Taliban will face is how they conform with international laws and regulations. As a matter of fact, we did see their spokesmen giving various assurances to the media. But speaking about things on a diplomatic level and ensuring them on a ground level are two very different things. For example, all these years, when the upper-level political leadership was off the main screen, it were these people at the lower level who, with the help of mostly Al-Qaeda and in some cases, TTP carried out its activities. Now in the blink of an eye, they cannot abandon this relationship. So good luck to Taliban leaders telling the battle-hardened commanders to fight against the banned militias but it just doesn't seem that easy.

Another problem that the Taliban will face is their assurance about women's rights and press freedom to the international community. The Taliban did assure that all these rights will be guaranteed but according to Shariah. Now this interpretation of Shariah is pivotal, for example if they do it the right way: it will be all good but if they do it The Taliban way, this will create problems.

The biggest problem the Taliban are going to encounter is that of the economy. Due to the uncertain situation in Afghanistan, most of its foreign reserves were kept outside the country (9.7b$ out of 10b$). As soon as Taliban came to power, these reserves were frozen by the U.S., so now Taliban are principally left only with reserves of 0.3b$. Moreover, due to its large current account deficit, DAB (Da Afghan Bank) had to obtain physical shipments of dollars after some days regularly from the U.S. One shipment was expected to arrive on 15th August 2021, the day on which Kabul fell. Although the U.S. had approved it in principle, but it was never going to arrive owing to the intelligence reports in the U.S. claiming that the Taliban will capture Kabul shortly. Furthermore, IMF also stopped the transfer of 450m$ it had pledged to the Afghan government in corona virus funds over uncertainty about the recognition of the Taliban by the international community. So both these steps actually limits the supply of dollars to the public, depreciating the Afghan currency. Moreover, as currency pass-through is very high, inflation will mainly hurt poor people as food prices increase. These prices of food have also increased due to no trade on the Pak-Afghan border. In the past, when the Taliban were not in power, about half of their income came from the opium trade; but now, as they seek to gain international legitimacy, they have no other choice but to give up on it.

As for neighboring Pakistan, it has remained quick and vigilant with every changing situation in Afghanistan, as seen by the numerous visits paid by Pakistan's COAS, DG ISI, and special envoy for Afghanistan M. Sadiq to Afghanistan. They have used all sorts of tactics to push for a political settlement between the Taliban and the Afghan government, but Ghani had refused bluntly to sit on the table. For example, in May, just 2-3 days after the COAS and DG ISI visit to Afghanistan, NSA Hamdullah Mohib spat derogatory remarks against Pakistan. Similarly, in June, when COAS met Ghani, FVP Amrullah Saleh started blaming Pakistan for the turmoil in Afghanistan, and then days later, the trend #sanctionpakistan surfaced on Twitter. In addition, the Taliban noticed that the U.S. had accepted them as the major stakeholder in Afghanistan and not the Afghan government when they directly negotiated with the Taliban. Therefore, they were also not much interested in a dialogue. One thing to be kept in mind is that Pakistan was pushing for a political settlement because its stability depends upon the stability of Afghanistan. That is to say that Pakistan has been the most affected neighbor of Afghanistan due to terrorism. Even now, when the Taliban rose to power, DG ISI is in Afghanistan, trying to push different groups to form a coalition government. Pakistan wants to ensure the representation of all ethnic and religious groups in the government so that no turmoil is created.

But in all this mess and instability, the major losses have been for the Afghan people. Ever since the 1980s, when the Soviets attacked Afghanistan: there has been no day when The Afghans could get up in the morning and experience a peaceful and stable life just like people in other countries do. As Bilal Saharwary once said, and I quote," Thinking about all the Afghans who get up each morning and don't have the option of walking away from it all.” The agony and pain inflicted upon the Afghan people by imperialists and other regional powers cannot be described in words. As for tens of millions of Afghans, this is yet the start of another long day: a day for which they can only pray that may there be peace and stability in their homeland. For now, just as they say, “The Afghans will live to fight another day."